How to Fix Harden-Lin (Lost) Connection

Harden and Lin were the best backcourt duo in the 1st 2 games but gradually lost their connection in the next 6 games (decreasing both of their performance) when Lin deferred the primary playmaker and distributor role to Harden. As a result, both of their performance suffered in the next 6 games.

After Houston Rockets 2-0 start with 21.4% Lin Usage Rate, they lost 4 of the next 6 games with Lin's Usage Rate dropped to 16.6%. Lin's AST/game to Harden and both 3PT% also dropped. Lin needs to take charge of the PG role.

How do we know it's true? In this short analysis, I will show that these general observations from many fans watching the game are validated by the statistics of lower 3PT%, worse +/- and Lin's lower usage rate (USG%) 3PT% in Game 3-8 which also pointed to the lack of ball movement expressed by Houston coaches. Houston coaches would need to right the ship by insisting Jeremy Lin to be the primary playmaker and let Harden be the best scorer.

After starting 2-0, Harden and Lin were speculated to be the best backcourt duo in the NBA.

But not so fast because they crashed back to earth with 4 losses and 2 wins in the next 6 games

1. Worsening trend of  +/- Stats

Worsening Team +/- Stats in the last 2 min of regulation

Even in their last 2 wins, their +/- stat in the last 2 min of the regulation showed that they were outscored by their opponents unlike the first two games when they finished stronger by outscoring the opponents.  Houston is a young team who didn't know how to close out games yet but the evidence (albeit small) said they managed to do it in Game 1 and Game 2. Most knowledgeable Houston fans know that the individual iso plays in the last few games simply did not work.

 The individual +/- Stat for Lin and Harden also shows similar but worse trend for Lin after Game1-2.

Why? They couldn't finish strong because Lin deferred to Harden to be the primary playmaker.

Harden is a great playmaker but he only got to play with his teammates for over 2 weeks and he can't do it all by himself. If this continues, he will overexert himself on the offense and unable to help much on defense. Meanwhile, Lin will be unable to distribute the ball effectively  on offense. The whole thing will snowball.

If you are still unconvinced, check also the decreasing trend of # of assists from Lin to Harden from Game 3-8:

Harden simply had to work harder for his points and the results were worse than Game 1 and Game 2. Even if Game 1 and 2's opponents were weaker team, the downward trend is very alarming.

2. Plummeting 3PT% for both Harden and Lin

Fans who watched the games can tell that Harden seemed to play the Point Guard role and

Lin just seemed content to let Harden be the primary playmaker and assumed the role of standing in the corner as a spot-up 3-PT shooter, which is never his strength. As a result, their 3PT% plunged from 43% and 40% to atrocious 17% and 21%.

 But defenses double-teamed Harden in Game 3-8  so he can no longer score 37 points and 45 points like he did in the first game. Lin's performance suffered because he penetrated less and his FG attempts dropped because he did not seem confident  to shoot and being a still-standing 3PT shooters in the corner.

3. The Usage Rate % (USG%) validated that he deferred too soon by giving the ball on offense to let Harden be the primary playmaker in Game 3-8.

Usage rate tells us the number of possessions a player utilizes while on the court. This statistic is a good indicator of how big of a role a particular player has in the team's offense.

His Usage % dropped from 21.4% to16.4% from Game 1-2 to Game3-8 while Harden's Usage % stayed roughly the same around 30%

You might be curious on what their USG% in 2011-2012 season when they played for NY Knicks and OKC Thunder.

For Lin, it was significant drop-off by 50% from 31% to 16% in Houston. Yes, it's a different system for Lin where it was point-guard heavy in NY Knicks under Coach D'Antoni but later on Coach Woodson also took over without much change in 31% USG% so Lin was always involved for both NY coaches.

Harden was the 6th man in OKC Thunder so he deferred to Durant and Westbrookto only have almost 20 USG%. Now he is a starter so he certainly should increase his USG% but Houston coaches need to ensure that Lin will be the primary playmaker as evident in Game 1-2.

This would explain why Jeremy touched the ball less on all possessions and seemed to lose confidence in shooting rhythm. He is not a 3PT specialist like Steve Novak who excels in catch-and-shoot. He needs the ball in his hands in most possessions to leverage his strength to penetrate and break down the defenses or bring it back out if defense collapses on him. I will provide some examples in the next posting to illustrate this point.

USG% of 22% seems optimal for Dragic and Lowry under Kevin McHale's system

Some will say that Coach McHale's system will require different USG% for the point guard.

Then let's check Goran Dragic's and Kyle Lowry's average USG% rate from last season

Dragic and Lowry had similar USG% at 22% under Coach McHale's system so this offers more argument that the coaches should expect Lin to maintain the same 22% USG rate to be as effective as in Game 1 and Game 2.

I understand Jeremy Lin is still recovering from his knee surgery and haven't regained 100% of the explosiveness but he demonstrated he can be the primary ball handler in Game 1 and Game 2 to leverage Harden's strength. So why changed the winning formula? Why made both Harden's and Lin's performance suffered in Game 3-8 by making Harden the primary ball distributor?

Harden seemed to score 40 points with effortless shooting in the first 2 games, but now he had to assume the most PG role with increased attention from defense while Jeremy is stuck on the corner.

In summary, the key message to Houston coaches is loud and clear:

Allow Jeremy Lin to be the primary playmaker and ball distributor to facilitate ball movement. He is the Point Guard after all. He will leverage Harden's strength as top scorer and secondary playmaker as proven in Game 1 and Game 2. And monitor the Lin's Usage Rate % to be at least 22%  (similar to Dragic and Lowry in McHale system) to support their desire for more ball movement.

Jeremy Lin is an Excellent Defender

Proof that Jeremy Lin is an Excellent Defender

Is Jeremy Lin an excellent defender or just an average defender? At times, he seemed to leave his man to help his teammates on defense and he gets burned when his man made layup or an open 3PT.

DWade had the highest PPG at Houston since 1986-1987.

He had 19 pts on 8-18 FGM-A.

In this 8-3 run, Jeremy's defense contributed to 2 missed FG with tight defense and 1 block, and forced him to give up the ball once.  

In the 11/12/12 game against Miami Heat, Jeremy sparked the defense in the 3rd quarter to start a 16-9 run to tie the game at 75-75 when he was substituted. He actually had a major role in the 8-3 run before Harden played PG to close it with 8-6 run.

In the 3rd Q with 7:43 remaining, while trailing 66-59, Houston made 16-7 run to tie at 75-75

Lin played a major role in playing team defense and orchestrating offense to make 8-3 run with excellent ball movement (average passes per possession =3.4). The score was 67-69 with 5:10 remaining

Then Harden played a major role to orchestrate a 8-6 run but the ball movement was poor (ave. passes/possession = 1.2)

We will look in detail in this 8-3 run, especially in how Lin successfully guarded Wade, Bosh, Cole resulting in 1 block, 2 missed layups, 1 steal, 1 charge. This is not the work of an average defender.

He made 1 mistake of leaving Chalmer for a wide-open +3 after deciding to help guard Ray Allen.

On offense, he scored one 3PT, 1-2 FT, 1 assist. The rest of the time, Harden played PG with mixed results and worse team defense.

For analysis purpose, I will reward GOOD and BAD defense points to analyze Jeremy's defensive impact on the 8-3 run.

When Lin managed to play defense well to prevent a player to score, he is rewarded +2 or +3 (a failed 3PT). If he fails to prevent his man from scoring, he will be penalized -2 or -3 (a made 3PT) or -1 (fouling someone to prevent from scoring)

In this 8-3 run, Lin's Total GOOD defense points are +10 and Total BAD defense points  are -3

7:52

1st POSSESSION

Lin was left one-on-one to guard Dwade on a fastbreak. Lin made Wade throw up bad layup and missed

 (LIN's  GOOD man-to-man DEF defense unrecorded in boxscore +2)

Asik could not hold the rebound and it went out of bound.

Harden couldn't guard DWade and had to foul him. Wade missed both FTs

 (Harden BAD defense -1 penalty since Wade did not make any FTs)

2nd POSSESSION

3-0 Lin made a wide-open 3PT shot. Ball movement= 4 passes. (LIN  OFF +3PT)

3-3 Lin left Chalmers to guard Battier. Bad mistake. Chalmers made 3PT (Lin BAD defense -3 )

       Lin's Total GOOD defense points = +2 and Total BAD defense points = -3

3rd POSSESSION

4-3 Lin drew foul on Chalmers. Made 1-2 FT. Ball movement= 3 (Lin  OFF +4PT)

 

     Delfino subbed for Asik.

4-3 Lin made Wade change his layup and pass to Battier,  (LIN's  GOOD DEF defense unrecorded in boxscore +2)

       got rebound off Cole's airball

       Lin's Total GOOD defense points = +4 and Total BAD defense points = -3

4th POSSESSION

6-3  Harden-Lin-Harden-Parsons  resulted in Parsons getting fouled and made 2 FT. Ball movement = 3 passes.    

6-3 Lin stole the ball from Bosh leading to quick pass to Parsons (Lin  DEF 1 STL)

       Lin had a good spacing between Cole and Bosh and decided to swipe the ball from Bosh.

       Lin's Total GOOD defense points = +6 and Total BAD defense points = -3

 5th POSSESSION

8-3 Parsons made easy dunk off Lin's well-timed bounce pass (Lin OFF 1 ASST)

        Lin and Delfino challenged Wade's layup (possibly a block) and Wade missed (LIN's  GOOD DEF with block +2)

       Lin's Total GOOD defense points = +8 and Total BAD defense points = -3

6th POSSESSION (HOU trailing 67-69)

      Harden's pass got deflected by Cole. He could have passed it back to a wide-open Delfino

      Parsons missed layup.  Ball movement = 6 passes. Good attempt but good defense by Battier

   Norris Cole offensive Charge (Jeremy Lin draws the foul)(LIN's  GOOD DEF good team defense unrecorded in boxscore +2)

       Lin's Total GOOD defense points = +10 and Total BAD defense points = -3

This mini 8-3 run demonstrated that Jeremy Lin is an excellent man-to-man and help defender in guarding 3 different players (DWade, Cole, Bosh) preventing them to score. He produced  1 block, 2 missed layups, 1 steal, 1 charge. But he also made one mistake against Ray Allen by leaving Chalmers for an open 3PT shot. He should stay aggressive in defense and get better in reducing mistakes with more experience in not overhelping with team defense against smart players like Ray Allen.

Interestingly, Harden passed the ball back to Lin 3 out of 4 times and good things happened when Jeremy decided to attack the basket or shoot the ball. On the offense, Jeremy should stay aggressive to attack the basket and/or pass to any open teammates.

Harden's bad plays seem to be when he decided to play hero ball to take it strong to the basket without any ball movement as proven by the last few possessions in the 4Q when Houston gave up the lead in the last 3 min.

Jeremy Lin was the Most Impactful Player for NY Knicks during 2011-2012 Regular Season (When Playing)

Really? Was Jeremy Lin the Most Impactful Player for NY Knicks during 2011-2012 Regular Season when he played for 35 games and not sidelined with injury? Yes, but it's not my opinion. NBA.com +/- Stat says so. 

The debate is still ongoing in the twitter world and among NBA writers/fans.

Some said it was just a big hype and it was really the NY Knicks defense anchored by DPOY Tyson Chandler that led to the Linning streak?  Or did Jeremy Lin actually inspire the Knicks to play better team offense and defense?

Which player made the most overall impact for the Knicks in defense and offense whenever he stepped on the floor?

I decided to use NBA.com +/- stats to find the answer. 

For those who are not familiar with this stats, this is the +/- wikianswer definition:

"The +/- stat is tied to team performance during the time that that particular player is on the court. The games official scorer records the differential in terms of gain (plus) or loss (minus). "

Throughout the season, this +/- stat is perfect to measure the overall impact of a player on the court because a high +/- number will give the team more chances to win the game. Simply said, we want players who can not only score but defend well (individually or as a team) to prevent the other team from scoring.

The official NBA +/- Stats for NY Knicks 2011-2012 Regular Season is as follows:

The official NBA.com +/- Stat for NY Knicks 2011-2012 Regular Season

Landry Fields is surprisingly ranked  #1 with 213 +/- in 66 games even with his poor shooting last season. Perhaps Toronto Raptors is not totally crazy paying him  $20M for 3 seasons. He can only get better, right? Steve Novak is ranked #2 with 178 in only 54 games (12 fewer than Landry).

How about Jeremy Lin ? Jeremy Lin is ranked #3 with only 35 games! (with 142 +/-)

Tyson is ranked #4, Melo is #6 and Amare is … dead LAST at #17 with -44.

Well,  there is a small problem with this ranking because some players played more games than the others so the ranking might favor those who played more games like Landry. So we need to divide it by the number of games in order to get the average +/- per game. This will allow us to compare the +/-impact of a player in a game. Also, we need to remove players who played fewer than 25 games (J.Jordan, R.Balkman, D.Gadzuric) because these backup players most likely played in garbage time (the last 5 minutes when one team is winning by 15-20 points) and the other team players did not play as hard. We want to see which players made the most contribution when the game still matters.

So who ranked the best at Average +/- per game for the Knicks in 2011-2012 regular season? Who made the most impact in the game everytime they stepped on the floor?

Average +/- per game for NY Knicks 2011-2012 Regular Season

Yes, you guessed correctly! Jeremy Lin is ranked #1 with an average of 4.06 +/- per game.

It means that whenever he stepped on the court in a game, he either used his scoring skills and defensive prowess to outscore the opponent by 4 points OR he magically transformed his teammates to do the work for him.

And you wonder how come Melo is only ranked #7 at 1.96? After all he was the top scorer for the Knicks. Well, he either expended a lot of energy to score a bunch and was too tired to play defense OR he magically transformed his teammates to play bad defense. I prefer to think the former although you can feel free to choose the latter.

I dare not speculate why Stoudemire was last at -0.94.

So there it is, folks!  Whenever people ask you if Jeremy Lin is overrated or just a big hype, just point to this +/- statistics that NBA.com has generously provided for all of us.  Whether Jeremy Lin used magic or skills to inspire NY Knicks to outscore the opponents by 4 points every game, he did make the Knicks play better team offense and team defense.

On a more important question: Does it mean Jeremy Lin will be the best player in Houston Rockets 2012-2013? It is very likely if he follows the same +/- pattern but he definitely needs to prove that he can play more than 35 games to silence many doubters.

What attracted people to Jeremy Lin's Christianity? Why did he credit Jesus Christ so much in his life?

Another re-post from jeremylin.net discussion thread.

No cartoon yet :)

Psalm234September 24, 2012 6:41 PM

@eb5attorney, 

You are 100% correct in stating "JLin's faith in Christianity and the way JLin acted upon his beliefs are what made the difference ". All Christians and non-Christians can witness how JLin's faith actually made a difference in serving other people's needs and not for his own fame and success. And that's what attracted many people to him and it certainly reminds people that he tries to do the same thing Jesus Christ did over 2000 years ago to minister to the poor and needy. Many Christian athletes pray or point to the sky to give credit to God on the field/court but they don't go above and beyond to do the ministry to care for others as an extension of their personal faith.

But does this prove or disprove the existence of God or Jesus Christ's spirit in Jeremy's life? Well, a big yes for Jeremy and a big maybe for other people. In his testimony, Jeremy already listed 13 miracles that had to happen for Linsanity so he clearly has put some serious thought to look back and personally feel the hands of God throughout the Linsanity run. Other people might credit Linsanity to karma for doing good things in his life but one thing for sure people cannot discredit how Jeremy felt the presence of God guiding the Linsanity phenomenon. So other people watching from the outside can only say maybe God orchestrated it with Jeremy's cooperation (he's got a free will after all) or it's just a coincidence for those 13 'miracles' to happen one after another.

Fortunately, we all get to watch what happens next in Houston. Personally, I think God is not done yet with his big plan for Jeremy. It may or may not translate to an NBA championship one day but that's not what's important for God and Jeremy according to his testimony.

"The thing that I learned through Linsanity is that there's nothing in this world that can offer that will provide me with true joy, fulfillment and satisfaction. There is only thing that can truly and eternally satisfy you … that's Jesus Christ"

You've got to understand where he's coming from to want to tell other people about what Jesus has done for him. When he was down and depressed not playing in GS, traded away from Houston and about to get fired from NY, it was God's words and Jesus' words through his prayers that got him through a tough time. He simply wants to share with other people what God has done for him.

Before I became Christian, it was hard for me to understand what it actually feels like by having personal relationship with Jesus Christ. It sounds weird and unnatural to have 'relationship' with someone who lived 2000 years ago. But later on, things just happened through prayers and Bible words became alive that made me feel that maybe Jesus is still alive in spirit and God is real. What also strengthened me in my faith is hearing how other Christians like Jeremy also shared the same joy, peace to live through all the hardship of living in the world.

Again, it is not my intention to 'convert' others to become Christians. Do I want others to feel the peace and joy that Jeremy also talked about? You bet. But if others are not open to it, that's okay. Christians are only supposed to share the good news, not to force it to others as many have misunderstood.

Faith can definitely be a contentious issue. It's always important to focus on the common ground and less of the differences among people of different faith or opinions. In this case, as JLin fans we all want him to succeed in Houston whether he can be a good role model for kids, Asian-American, Christians, non-Christians, people who are discriminated , etc. I truly enjoy and appreciate the thoughtful posts that people post here, definitely a fresh breath of air compared to other newsgroups. 

Go JLin!

"Is the Bible accurate? Which book is helpful to answer tough questions about Christian faith?

This is a re-post from jeremylin.net discussion thread. 

I hope I will find time to add the cartoon later on.

Psalm234September 24, 2012 12:22 AM

This is for wilc, willydilly and others who engaged in a great discussion about Biblical accuracy. 

If you like to read a detective story, there is a great book "Case for Faith" by Lee Strobel (ex-Chicago Tribune investigative journalist and an ex-atheist) that addresses these questions using his investigative skills. I found them to be very helpful in enriching my faith and providing answers to some of my questions.

http://www.amazon.com/Case-Faith-Journalist-Investigates-Christianity/dp/0310234697

Award-winning reporter and author Lee Strobel (The Case for Christ) once again uses his investigative skills to address the primary objections to Christianity. As a former atheist, Strobel understands the rational resistance to faith. He even names the eight most convincing arguments against Christian faith:

1) If there's a loving God, why does this pain-wracked world groan under so much suffering and evil?

2) If the miracles of God contradict science, then how can any rational person believe that they're true?

3) If God is morally pure, how can he sanction the slaughter of innocent children as the Old Testament says he did?

4) If God cares about the people he created, how could he consign so many of them to an eternity of torture in hell just because they didn't believe the right things about him?

5) If Jesus is the only way to heaven, then what about the millions of people who have never heard of him?

6) If God really created the universe, why does the evidence of science compel so many to conclude that the unguided process of evolution accounts for life?

7) If God is the ultimate overseer of the church, why has it been rife with hypocrisy and brutality throughout the ages?

8) If I'm still plagued by doubts, then is it still possible to be a Christian?

As a Christian, I always believe God wants his children to question and deepen our faith on why we believe what we believe so we can always be ready to give an explanation to anyone whos asks us for a reason for our hope. (1 Peter 3:15)

I definitely do not want to resurrect the discussion because it won't be fair to other JLin fans here :) but I thought I'll share something with my fellow JLin fans that has been useful for me personally and to teach Sunday School. Now if we want to discuss if God really took over JLin's body during his 3-pointer at Toronto, that might be interesting :D

Have a blessed week everyone!